My older sister is now on her way to a two week tour of China with her husband. Hearing of the trip, her granddaughter, just starting Third Grade, nodded and solemnly said:

"China . . . where everything is made. "

That one comment explains a lot of the rot in our American economy.

Chicago Magazine, in cooperation with the BGA, published an article on Joe The Lobster, and his various political machinations.  The Lobster, aside from being a powerful commissioner on the Cook County Board of Review, is the head of the Cook County Democratic Party, the Chicago Machine.  He is now running for the office of Cook County Assessor.

Joe Berrios is a throwback to the criminally corrupt machine of the 1930s- 80s.  He is just more sophisticated than the old time rubes.  The Lobster is a man devoid of ethics and does not care who knows it.  Patronage?  Hey, his kids and family members need jobs too.  Campaign contributions from lawyers doing business with his office?  What conflict of interest?  Property tax attorneys working the polls on his behalf, like mere precinct workers?  What is wrong with that?  Lobbying against the public interest and making big bucks from his clients?  No problem.  Investigations of his office and activities?  Par for the course and going nowhere.

It is truly amazing.  He makes other corrupt Democrats look like pikers.  He laughs all the way to the bank and the polls, thumbing his nose at us mere voters and tax payers.  He cares not about the media, investigations against his office, or anyone else, for that matter.  Berrios just cares about one thing.  It is not public service.  Berrios only cares about Berrios.

             If you are receiving this, it is because you are an integral part of the GOP core in Chicago and Cook County and we have met each other already, in some cases we know each other very well.

              I want you to be among the very first to know that I have officially decided to seek nomination to run for 36th Ward Alderman in Chicago in February 2011. It is a northwest side ward that includes Dunning, Montclare and Galewood bordered roughly by Cumberland on the west, Irving Park Rd on the north, Narraganset on the East and the southern border runs along Belmont Ave., then south along Harlem Ave. until it ends at North Ave. My family and I have lived there our whole lives and know the neighborhoods, bars, restaurants, schools and churches well. I grew up and was educated there. I will be gathering the required signatures over the next several weeks going door-to-door in areas of the ward that I know hold some promise for me. 

             I will be going up against the notorious 36th Ward Democratic machine once led by Bill Banks, who resigned his post as alderman and had his former driver John Rice appointed. Rice's name ID is very low and the Banks clan made more than a few enemies among neighbors in the past decade, thus making 36 vulnerable for the first time in a generation. They still have a small army of loyal precinct captains and city workers along with a lot of money socked away in Bank's committeeman account from his days handing out zoning passes to developers. The race is setting up to be competitive with at least two other candidates committed to run and a possible 5th other than myself. I would be the only Republican in the race (though city elections are technically non-partisan).

              I am currently completing the initial process of setting up my campaign bank account, preparing my D-1 for when I eclipse $3,000 in the account, setting up my website (which will be matosforchicago36.com <http://matosforchicago36.com/>  and .net) and recruiting friends and family in the neighborhood to commit time for me. 

            Assuming I survive the inevitable ballot challenge, my campaign plan will be simple and targeted. I plan on personally knocking on the door of every known Republican in the ward (less than 1500 individuals in roughly 1100 households). Target independents with phone banking and a simple lit drop while catching up with others during neighborhood meetings at schools, churches and parks. The twist is that I am half Puerto Rican (Matos is a well known Latino name) and some of that side of my family is in 36. South of Belmont there is a large Latino population. I am the only candidate in the race who is even half Latino (or frankly not Italian). While I am not fluent in Spanish myself, my lit drops will be bilingual and I hope to have a couple family members fluent in Spanish help me out there. Also, I have a couple of Polish contacts for the area north of Belmont who will help me do bilingual outreach there. I hope to do some serious outreach to the elderly and police in the neighborhood. My father was a Puerto Rican police officer for 20 years in Bayamon so police life is near to my heart.

           This is a ward that sees about 11,000 votes cast for Alderman in a normal year and I believe despite the Dem organization, I can gather enough votes, combined with the other candidates, to at least force a run off that will tie up Democrat resources in 36, drain some of their massive campaign fund and do long term damage to their Northwest Side influence. Hopefully, my presence will stop some 36th ward money from flooding other wards were good candidates will be running against machine guys.

            In the months preceding Feb. 2011, I will seek more of your help, wisdom and insights. The GOP infrastructure that you have all helped build is amazing and I am proud to be a part of it. I thank you for all your work and guidance to this point that has allowed me to confidently say I am now ready to put my knowledge into action. I look forward to speaking with each of you more about my campaign as it gets organized and gathers steam. For now, let's focus on GOP victories in November, that will build the momentum toward more local wins in 2011 and the big prizes in 2012.

Dear Fellow Republican:

On November 2nd, Illinois will elect a Republican to the United States Senate and a Republican as the next governor of Illinois. Don’t take my word for it – that’s the latest prediction from one of America’s top political prognosticators. According to Stuart Rothenberg, “This cycle is bad for the Democrats and particularly bad for Illinois Democrats.”

He’s right. A new Gallup survey shows Republicans with an unprecedented 10-point generic ballot test advantage this November. Politico reports a “tidal wave” might be coming for Republicans. The Hill newspaper notes Mark Kirk already leads Alexi Giannoulias 45-23 in the 19th Congressional District.

And with races tightening around the country for Democrat incumbents, Senator Durbin finally admitted what we always knew to be true: the national Democratic Party does not want to waste its money on a mob banker like Alexi Giannoulias.

According to Crain’s Chicago Business, “Mr. Durbin was asked if Democrats would match the $3.4 million that the National Republican Senatorial Committee last week promised Mr. Kirk. Mr. Durbin replied with a candid ‘No.’”

Meanwhile, Mark Kirk was in Peoria this week receiving a key endorsement from one of Illinois’ top job creators – adding to his endorsements from the Illinois Chamber of Commerce and the National Federation of Independent Business.

It’s also great to see Senator Bill Brady continuing to make strides in the governor’s race. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Brady with a 48% to 35% lead over Pat Quinn. That’s up from 44% to 37% three weeks ago. Brady is going up, but more important, Quinn continues to fall.

Our state’s $13 billion debt and 10.3% unemployment rate aren’t the only reasons. Quinn has demonstrated a failure to lead and questionable judgment time and time again.

This is your chance to be a part of history. If you want to take part in this year’s Republican “tidal wave” in Illinois, please sign up online here.

Yours truly,

Pat Brady
Chairman, Illinois Republican Party

Election Volunteer Training ~ How We Will Win the Election by Working Together

The August 21st training was such a success, that we are offering the election volunteer training class again.

In this two hour training, you will learn how to be an effective part of the election process.

There are proven procedures and techniques that win elections, such as educating votes through door knocking, phone calling and letter writing.  You will also learn how to make your volunteer hours productive by targeting conservative and independent voters.

Attend the class and learn how you can become an effective volunteer in the weeks leading up to the November 2nd election.

Together we can take back our country & state. Hosted by: 

   Cook County Tea Party
   DuPage Tea Party
   Homer/Lockport Tea Party
   Lemont Tea Party

Course Outline:
1. Introduction and overview of the class

2. Level of Involvement
a. Phone calling, faxing and/ or visits to congressmen and other elected officials regarding issues
b. Petitions: (rules) Petitioning for candidates and/ or issues
c. Election activities: election judging, poll watchers,
bringing people to the voting venues. Voter registration.

3. Get out the Vote strategies
a. phone calling
b. robo calls
c. Door knocking statistics.

4. Door Knocking Strategies that work.

Come learn how to make a difference...

6:30pm - Check In 6:45 pm -Prompt Start due to Library closing at 9:00 pm

Help us spread the word about this event.

High School and college students are also welcome to attend this training.

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Tribune columnist John Kass has given Illinois a new name.  "Madiganistan".  It properly reflects the terror of the political warlord who leads this state.  Make no mistake, Osama Bin Madigan is a political terrorist.  Unfortunately, little has been done to tarnish or topple him.  He is too big and way too powerful to fail.  His power comes from one advantage- apathy of Democratic voters.

According to Illinois GOP Chairman Pat Brady-  "It's obvious we're all here to serve the Madigans."  Truer words were never spoken.  Mike Madigan is a power unto himself.  Like feudal kings of old, he is the iron-fisted ruler of this state.  His obedient political army of knighted legislators, lobbyists, and operatives are at his beck and call to attack any and all who attempt to defy him.  His princess, the Attorney General, protects his every move.

Kass hits the nail on the head when he opines that every statewide Democratic vote in November is a vote to keep Bin Madigan on his bloody throne.  Unfortunately, too many people do not see it that way.  They just vote the D, well, because, um, gee, er, em, ah; they just vote the D because they always have.  No thought process involved.  It is what it is.  Democratic voters are not known for deep thinking.  They are not known for thinking at all.  They are automatons.

Thanks to warlord Osama Bin Madigan, his party, and his puppet governor, Illinois is nearing insolvency.  Businesses are leaving for greener pastures in neighboring states; being chased out by Bin Madigan's terrorist cells.  Jobs are being lost and the people are being nibbled to financial death by hosts of taxes, fees, and higher costs of living.  After November, it will only get worse.  There will be true fiscal terror across Madiganistan.

It is time for the serfs to rise up.  It is time to take up the pick ax, shovels, and pitchforks.  It is time for the great unwashed to revolt.  It is time for a surge. Osama Bin Madigan must be deposed.  Driven from his redoubt.  His minions scattered.  If there is any reason to vote Republican in November, it is to end the reign of terror of Osama Bin Madigan.

Dear Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Public Access Counselor:

Regarding my May 17^th Freedom of Information Act request, attached, where I asked the Cook County Assessor’s Office for a 65D [report] of all sales in 2005 and 2006; please find the following responsive documents:

• A June 8, 2010 Cook County Assessor’s Office 65D Rejection Letter, received on July 9, 2010

Where my response is as follows:

If you look closely at the Assessor’s documents containing an alleged date of June 8, 2010 (above), please find the following stated reasons for denial of my request:

A)    The program is not designed to query your request for the 2005 and 2006 sales for the Township of Cicero. Therefore, the request is denied because no such record exists. Pursuant to case law, FOIA does not require that the public body create a record where none exist, or to compile information from various sources in order to reply to a request.

B)    The 65D is a program utilized as part of a mass regression that provides pre-assessed values for 1^st Pass.  The disclosure of this program would be detrimental to the public because it provides valuable regression based formulas that private party companies, which specialize in the mass regression field, would be able to manipulate for their own private gain, including but not limited to, predicting assessed values. The public loss is that the formula was developed for the purpose of 1^st pass data, and as such cost the County specialized IT/MIS/Assessor man hours and monies to develop, furthermore, as noted above, the program is of significant commercial value. FOIA exempts the program pursuant to section 7(1)(i). Valuable formulae, computer geographic systems, designs, drawings and research data obtained or produced by any public body when disclosure could reasonably be expected to produce private gain or public loss.

Please note my objections to the above, as such:

With respect to item A), please find a short copy of a 65D report, queried by sales of 2005 and 2006; proving that these records do exist. Subsequently, point A), above, is a lie.

With respect to item B), please thoroughly review the same 65D report, where, clearly, this report does not allow anyone, including private companies that specialize in the mass regression field, to predict assessed values. What it does reveal, however, is that the Assessor’s Office manually overrides values outside of the mass regression formula:

Where these manual overrides are based on other properties selected by the Assessor’s Office, in private; therefore rendering an assessed value for a homeowner, who know(s) not the PIN number, location, square footage, and other defining features of properties known to the Assessor as comparables in determining the amount of taxes he or she must pay.

Furthermore, you can also review the linear regression formula itself, which I’ve obtained through a private party in the Assessor’s Office; where even the formula disproves the above statement in item B), since the definition of the variables used in this computation are also unknown to the public.

Please review the information I’ve presented, thoroughly, and I’d ask that you find in my favor; issuing a decision that the Assessor’s Office should comply with the Act, and provide a 65D that I can post online. After all, this information would be useful to the public, for the purpose of determining those homes that were manually overrode by the Assessor.

Furthermore, I’d like to express my general concern for the following Assessor’s Office statement:

“The disclosure of this program would be detrimental to the public because it provides valuable regression based formulas that private party companies, which specialize in the mass regression field, would be able to manipulate for their own private gain, including but not limited to, predicting assessed values.”

Where I believe that everyone should be able to predict their assessed values. And if any government body would go to this much trouble to keep homeowners, taxpayers, and the general public from being able to know what their values will be from one year to the next, then I’d like to recommend this Office to the Illinois Attorney General for criminal investigation; with the strong reminder that already one Assessor’s Office Freedom of Information Act Department employee has been recently convicted for criminal activity.

Thank you for your time and consideration.

Cordially,

David N. Jenkins

WWW.WATCHDOGJENKINS.ORG

Carl Segvich

for

Cook County Commissioner

11^th District

Conservative Candidates

Against Corruption

Sunday, September 12^th

5 p.m. – 8 p.m.

O’Rourke’s Office

11064 South Western Avenue

$25 Donation, appetizers will be served, cash bar.

Donations should be made to Citizens for Segvich.

Make the Switch -- VOTE SEGVICH!

For information contact Joe at (773) 655-0684

or

This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it

www.SEGVICH.com

A copy of our report is/will be filed with the Illinois  State Board of Elections.

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Pat Quinn, in a pathetic and desperate attempt to raise his miserable sinking poll numbers, has embarked on a campaign of, well, no one can figure out what he is campaigning for.  Or against.  The only things the voters really care about are the budget, jobs, and corruption.  Each one affects their pocket book.

Pat Quinn's only solution to the worsening budget crisis is to raise taxes- a position he has been advocating for five years.  His only solution to jobs is to initiate programs guaranteed to drive businesses away from Illinois.  Pat Quinn, like the vast majority of Democrats, does not realize it is private businesses- those mean nasty evil corporations- who create good paying jobs.  It is small businesses who create entry level jobs.  Pat Quinn is owned by the unions, especially the SEIU.  Unions do not create jobs.  They only profit from them, as evidenced by the millions of dollars in dues money they spend buying Democrats instead of spending the money on their members. 

Quinn has done nothing to cut non-essential services from the state budget.  He has done nothing to prioritize the budget.  He has done nothing to merge or consolidate departments with overlapping responsibilities.  He has done nothing to shrink the state payroll, which is going to cause a severe pension problem in the near future.  Quinn has done nothing, period.

As a true Chicago Machine hack, Quinn has done nothing to stem the tide of corruption plaguing Illinois Government.  What he has done is put an old, worn, dirty bandage on an infected sore.  Quinn does not dare anger the Democratic powers that be; any more than he already has.

Quinn is out there talking about issues most voters care little about in this depressed economy.  The litmus issues, guaranteed to anger targeted groups of people; abortion, guns, mammograms, senior citizen issues, and other social welfare nonsense.  Some people get angered, but the anger only lasts until they realize they keep having more month at the end of the money.

Like most Democrats, he is not paying attention.  The voters are no longer stupid.  The citizens realize no issues can be discussed, no solutions can be implemented, nothing can be done, unless there is a good, clean, honest, and open government structure in place, the state's fiscal house is in order, and private industry is thriving and creating good jobs.

Quinn has not only proven he is an abject failure as a governor.  He is an abject failure as a candidate.   

There is going to be a political tsunami this November reminiscent of the 1994 Republican revolution led by Newt Gingrich. Republicans will win the Senate and the House.

Since Obama's foreign policy is based on the tenet of "apologizing for America" instead of empowering America. Worse off he is letting UN dictate what is right for America. It is a disgrace that countries like Iran and Sudan with the grossest human rights violations are on the human rights committees and given the power to criticize  United States.  The State Department under Hillary Clinton submitted a report to the U.N. 's High Commissioner for Human Rights praising the present administration for their effort to repair the injustices of America. I am wondering if the report spoke about "the Panther case" of intimidating republican voters. Yet, they criminalized the Arizona immigration law by calling it human rights abuse. So much for justice! I personally think that the race card is over the limit!( BTW  American Jews who voted for you predominantly knew that your middle name was Hussein!)    So, do the terrorist and they do not give a damn about just like everybody else!  The point is that we cannot submit to the corrupt justice of the United Nations which does not treat human rights violators like Iran and Sudan seriously.

Worse off is Hillary Clinton advocacy of the "International Small Arms Treaty" which is an international concerted effort to impose international gun laws on America. America is strong because the second amendment gives people the liberty to protect themselves. The American Revolution was successful because the colonial militia and the citizens owned guns.

Switzerland was not invaded by the Nazis because they had guns. Nevertheless, if the German citizens and Jews would have been allowed to own guns Hitler and the Nazis would have been powerless.

But to get to the point , every international treaty needs 2/3 of the Senate for ratification. In the age of Internationalist Obama is indispensable for the Senate to be predominantly republican. It is the only way to forestall Obama's Incompetent & Precarious Foreign Policy.

Here is what the latest polls show:

August 27th Polls

Nevada:

Reid (D) 45 / Angle (R) 44 (Mason Dixon)

With Reid this far under 50%, Angle is likely to win.

August 26th Polls

Florida:

(Currently Republican) Rubio (R) / 40 Crist (I) 30 / Meek (D) 21 (Rasmussen)

So much for Crist!

Pennsylvania:

Toomey 40 (R) / Sestak (D) 31 (Franklin-Marshall)

August 25th Polls

Colorado:

Buck (R) 49 / Bennett (D) 40 (Reuters)

California:

Boxer (D) 49 / Fiorina (R) 44 (Rasmussen)

Boxer has gained a bit, but still in trouble.

Louisiana:

(Currently Republican) Vitters (R) / 51 Melancon (D) 41 (PPP)

Wisconsin:

Johnson (R) 47 / Feingold (D) 46 (Rasmussen)

Illinois:

Giannoulias (D) 45 / Kirk (R) 45 (Rasmussen)

August 24th polls

Missouri:

(Currently Republican) Blunt: 54 / Carnahan: 41 (Rasmussen)

August 21st Polls

Washington State:

Rossi (R) 52 / Murray (D) 45 (SurveyUSA)

August 20th Polls

Arkansas:

In a sign of our partisan political times, the speech by President Obama last night had decided political overtones.  He could not resist mentioning that President Bush started the war and that Obama opposed it.  He could not resist mentioning his campaign promise fulfilled.  But he also could not stay away from the topic scaring the bejeezus out of every Democratic incumbent up for election:  the economy.  Yet his words on the economy were empty, with no new ideas to bring forward, just more hope and fancy rhetoric.   He is a captain who announces great destinations, without a clue on how to conduct the voyage.  

The American economy has been increasingly unsound for decades, as we have become more and more a consumer and services economy, and less a manufacturing economy.   Our best and brightest no longer go into industry, they go to Wall Street.  Since the early 1970s, our economy has slowed in annual growth and produced nearly stagnant living standards, which are now slipping with the Great Recession.   Our trade deficit is large, and not declining.  Since about 1985, the U.S. has been a “debtor nation”, meaning that more is owed to foreign investors than the world owes us.  That in itself is not a big problem.  What is a big problem is that the new money flowing in is increasingly being handed to the Government to spend, and not to the corporate entities that could use the money to build the economy.  This reality has been hidden by succession of the Tech Stock Bubble and the Real Estate Bubble over the last decade, but the veneer is now ripped away.

Now add in the federal Public Debt, currently at just over $13 trillion.  In 1980, the Public Debt was 33% of our Gross National Product.  In the 1990s that percentage grew to 55.5%.  Today it is a staggering 91% of GNP, and shows every sign of steaming past 100% of GNP in the coming years. 

But wait, it gets worse!  The obligations of the insolvent “Gold Dust Twins,” Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, are not included in U.S. Government debt statistics, even though the U.S. Government has now moved to back the obligations of the Twins.  How much are the obligations of these deadbeats?  Another $5 trillion! 

What does that mean to you?  This year the federal government will pay $202 billion in debt service.  By 2019 it will explode to  $700 billion.  (That figure does not include payments to keep the Gold Dust Twins afloat!)   How much is $700 billion, you may ask?  That is about 20% of the entire 2010 Budget.  That is more than we are spending on federal Medicaid and Medicare this year.  That is more than we are spending on Social Security payments this year.  That is almost equal to our entire Defense Budget for this year.  It is just smaller than Obama's massive Stimulus program that did not work.  $700 billion is one heck of a lot of money. 

Where is all that money going?  About 40% of the federal Public Debt is “intergovernmental debt,” fancy shorthand for robbing Peter (government trust funds such as Social Security) to pay Paul (current expenditures).    But a full 60% is “Held by the Public.”  Of that “public”, about 34% of the entire Public Debt is U.S. banks and citizens, but a full 26% of our entire federal Public Debt is held by non-U.S. entities, such as foreign central banks, institutions and citizens.  Our largest single creditor is now the People’s Republic of China.   What a confidence builder!

This can't go on.  These reckless moves have consequences, as two of the greatest obstacles to economic recovery are now the Obama Administration and the Democratic Congress.  The wild spending, the expansion of goverment, the industry takeovers, and the portrayal of corporate America as evil has left Big Business deeply uneasy and unwilling to make big expenditures. Corporate America is sitting on hordes of cash capital, as much today as in our history.  But confidence in our government is so low that companies will not spend on new expansion.  As a result, the money is there, but it is simply not moving.   

None of this was addressed by President Obama tonight, because he really does not want the public to understand it.   Instead, he offers mounds and mounds of Hopium.   This campaign season, send the message that Hopium has left the building.

ANALYSIS & OPINION BY RUSS STEWART

            This column is usually styled “analysis and opinion.” This week, despite the public’s underwhelming response to the onset of Chicago’s 2011 Chicago municipal election season, it’s “gossip and opinion.”

            Nature provides earth dwellers with four seasons. Chicago dwellers have only one season: All politics, all the time, with no respite, and continual overlap. The 2010 election is still two months away, but Aug. 24 heralded the first day to legally circulate nominating petitions for Chicago alderman and citywide office, which are due by Nov. 29. The election is Feb. 22, 2011.

            A crowd of aldermanic candidates has already emerged in the Northwest Side 36^th, 41^st and 45^th wards.

In the 41^st Ward, Alderman Brian Doherty will retire. Doherty is running for state senator in the Nov. 2 election as a Republican, and faces a tough race against appointed incumbent John Mulroe (D). Doherty is backing his 14-year administrative assistant, Maurita Gavin, for alderman. Gavin will face four foes.

In the 36^th Ward, Alderman Bill Banks resigned in 2009, and he prevailed upon Mayor Rich Daley to appoint John Rice, his chief-of-staff – although Rice’s job was primarily to serve as Banks’ driver – as his replacement. Four or more candidates will oppose Rice.

In the 45^th Ward, Alderman Pat Levar, despite some health problems, will not retire. Rumors were rampant that Levar would pass the job to State Representative Joe Lyons (D-19). But, on Aug. 25, 45^th Ward precinct captains hit the streets with Levar’s petitions. Levar is running, and may face up to 8 opponents.

            In analyzing 2011, certain eternal political verities apply:

            First, positioning – meaning second place -- is critical. If a longtime incumbent is running – like Levar, first elected in 1987 -- the election is a referendum on incumbent performance and/or personality. The opponents’ goal is to pummel the alderman, exploit incumbent fatigue, portray themselves as the most credible alternative, and finish second in February, getting at least 30-35 percent of the vote. Presumably, the alderman finishes first, but gets less than 50 percent. The runner-up then faces the incumbent in the April, unites the anti-incumbent field, and usually wins.

            That verity has tangential application to Rice and Gavin. Both, as staffers, are  tied to their mentors, Banks and Doherty. If they overly emphasize their ex-boss’ endorsement, or their service to the ex-alderman, they create the opportunity to make the contest a referendum on the ex-incumbent’s record.

            Second, in an open seat race, developing a niche is critical. That means a cobbling together a voter coalition based on party affiliation, ideology, geography, gender, ethnicity, issues, or a combination thereof. The goal: Get a third of the vote. Even though the aldermanic election is non-partisan, support from the local Democratic or Republican ward organization is exceedingly helpful.

The 1991 race in the 41^st Ward is illustrative: Doherty, a then-obscure county employee backed by precinct workers from State Representative Roger McAuliffe’s 38^th Ward Republican organization, got 6,758 votes (30.6 percent), in an 8-candidate race, finishing second. The 18-year incumbent, Roman Pucinski, got 9,181 votes (41.6 percent). The turnout was 22,034, with 6,095 votes to 6 other candidates.

In the ensuing runoff, turnout rose to 25,480 (an increase of 3,446), and Doherty beat Pucinski by 13,782-11,698 (54.1 percent). Pucinski upped his vote by 2,517, but Doherty’s increased by 7,024, capturing virtually all the prior anti-Pucinski votes. Doherty’s Irish surname, Pucinski “fatigue,” and an effective precinct operation got him nearly a third of the vote, and a runoff.

Third, money talks, idle rhetoric walks. A credible contender for alderman must raise at least $50,000. A wardwide mailing costs $15,000. Add to that yard signs, headquarters’ rent, phone banking, ads, printing, and staff.

And fourth, convey stature. In Chicago, being an alderman is a powerful position. With 66,000 people per ward, in 20,000-plus households, aldermen have a direct impact on their constituents’ quality of life. With a $5.3 billion city budget, aldermen have an impact on spending and taxes. Voters want their alderman to be tough, assertive, resourceful and effective – and to oppose Daley when necessary. They don’t want a gadfly, puppet, or clueless “reformer.”

Here’s the latest gossip and analysis:

41^st Ward: Doherty’s term runs through April 2011, so he had a “Plan B”: If he lost the state senate race, he could run for re-election. But Doherty realized that’s a liability. Mulroe criticized Doherty for (a) not being serious about running and (b) not being confident of winning. Mulroe’s ally, 41^st Ward Democratic Committeeman Mary O’Connor, announced for alderman, and they are running a dual-track anti-Doherty campaign: Their door-to-door workers push both, and the Mulroe campaign will morph into the O’Connor campaign after Nov. 2.

Springfield Democrats will dump at least $300,000 into Mulroe’s race, with a multitude of negative mailings hypocritically tying Doherty to Chicago corruption, blasting him on ward issues, and ripping him as a political “insider.” Throughout Illinois, Republicans are running as “outsiders.” But Doherty, a 19-year alderman, is no “outsider.” Mulroe, now a senator, replacing Jim DeLeo, who resigned, will be a cog in Senate President John Cullerton’s machine. Republicans will tie Mulroe to Springfield corruption, even though he just got there. The nasty Doherty-Mulroe campaign will have minimal tie to reality.  

Astutely concluding that he’d be “damaged goods” if he loses, that he can’t wait until after he wins to pick a successor, and that O’Connor already has a huge headstart, Doherty decided to retire as alderman. He is backing Gavin, the widow of former ward sanitation superintendent Patrick Gavin, who has been his aide since 1996. “She’s the most saleable candidate. She has extensive knowledge of ward issues. She has integrity and a work ethic,” said Doherty. Gavin was unanimously endorsed by the executive committee of the 41^st Ward Republican organization.

Now Doherty can run a dual-track campaign in the 41^st Ward, and Gavin will have a campaign operation in place before – not after-- Nov. 2.

Other candidates: Richard Gonzalez, an 18-year Chicago police officer, currently a sergeant in the 13^th District (Wood Street), is credible. An estimated 1,500 votes are cast in the ward by police officers and their families. Gonzalez’ theme is simple: Get tough. Fight crime. Deploy more police.

 “She (Gavin) was unanimously endorsed by Doherty,” said Jim Soreng, “not by Republicans in the ward.” Soreng, a former regional director for the state treasurer, now a policy consultant for Resolute Consulting, is running as a professed Republican. Soreng adds: “She (Gavin) is tied to Doherty. There is Doherty fatigue. She cannot win.”

Also running is Mike Hannon, 26-year old account manager, who got 1,556 votes in 2007 (11.1 percent). He is backed by former Democratic Committeeman Ralph Capparelli.

The outlook: As a police officer, Gonzalez has stature, and a base. As Democratic committeeman, O’Connor has a base. She got 5,744 votes when she ran for committeeman in 2008. As Doherty’s aide, Gavin has extensive contacts throughout the ward, and a base among hardcore pro-Doherty voters. Soreng is an unknown quantity. The victor? It all depends on voter priorities. If it’s fighting crime, Gonzalez makes the runoff; if it’s good ward services, Gavin and O’Connor have an edge. All three have a potential base of 30 percent. Soreng and Hannon will bring up the rear.

36^th Ward:  In 2007, Banks spent $538,382 and crushed firefighter Nick Sposato, by 8,315-2,599 (76.2 percent). But Rice is not Banks, and lacks stature and money. Sposato is back for a second crack. Jody Biancalana, who got 6,336 votes in the ward in a losing 2006 bid for county commissioner; Chicago police officer Tom Motzny; and water department employee Bruce Randazzo are running. Others rumored are Ginny Partipilo, Larry Andolino, Victor Ochoa and Mike Marzullo.

The outlook: In a field of 6-plus, there’s no way Rice can avoid a runoff. “Everybody’s knows him (Rice) as ‘the driver,’” said Sposato. “He gets no respect.”

45^th Ward: Levar won in 2007 with 56.2 percent, spending $443,896. Since then, Levar “fatigue” has become pervasive. A large anti-Levar field has emerged for 2011, a sure sign of the incumbent’s weakness.

Candidates include Portage Park businessmen Don Blair and John Arena; Chicago police lieutenant John Garrido, from the Elston-Austin area; Forest Glen realtor Anna Klocek and police officer Mike Ward; Gladstone Park accountant Bruno Bellissimo; and Jefferson Park political gadfly Greg Sedlacek.

The issue is Levar. The field will pound away on the “5-I’s”: That Levar is inept, inattentive, indecisive, politically impotent in the city council, and intolerable.

The top tier is Blair, a community activist who expects to spend $250,000; Arena, who will run as an anti-Daley “reformer”; and Garrido, with a base among police and support from the ward’s Republican organization.

Dim lights

Dim lights

Dim lights

HOW REPUBLICANS WILL WIN THE SENATE

By DICK MORRIS

It gets tiresome hearing the conventional wisdom say that the Democrats will likely keep control of the Senate.  Far from it.

To gain control, Republicans must win ten new seats.  An analysis of the latest polling data suggests that Republicans currently hold the lead in eight pick-up states: Pennsylvania, Colorado, Wisconsin, Washington State, Arkansas, Delaware, North Dakota, and Indiana.  In a ninth, Illinois, the candidates are tied and, in the tenth - Nevada - Reid is ahead by only one point.  And, for insurance, Boxer in California and Gillibrand in New York are both below 50% of the vote.  In Connecticut, Blumenthal is only at 50%.  That's a potential pickup of thirteen seats and a likely gain of at least ten (enough for a majority).

Any incumbent who is running at less than 50% of the vote is in serious trouble.  It means that a majority of the voters have decided not to vote for him or her.  (Asked if you are likely to be married to the same person next year, a vote of "undecided" does not bode well for your marriage).

So here are the numbers:


August 27th Polls


Nevada:

Reid (D) 45 / Angle (R) 44  (Mason Dixon)

With Reid this far under 50%, Angle is likely to win.


August 26th Polls


Florida:

(Currently Republican)  Rubio (R) / 40  Crist (I) 30 / Meek (D) 21  (Rasmussen)

So much for Crist!


Pennsylvania: 
Toomey 40 (R) / Sestak (D) 31 (Franklin-Marshall)


August 25th Polls


Colorado: 
Buck (R) 49 / Bennett (D) 40   (Reuters)


California: 
Boxer (D) 49 / Fiorina (R) 44  (Rasmussen)

Boxer has gained a bit, but still in trouble.


Louisiana:

(Currently Republican)  Vitters (R) / 51 Melancon (D) 41 (PPP)


Wisconsin:

Johnson (R) 47 / Feingold (D) 46  (Rasmussen)


Illinois: 
Giannoulias (D) 45 / Kirk (R) 45  (Rasmussen)


August 24th polls


Missouri:

(Currently Republican) Blunt: 54 / Carnahan: 41 (Rasmussen)


August 21st Polls


Washington State: 
Rossi (R) 52 / Murray (D) 45  (SurveyUSA)


August 20th Polls


Arkansas: 
Boozeman (R) 65 / Lincoln (D) 27 (Rasmussen)


This is not a typo!

The most likely results are that Republicans win the eight seats in which they now lead and also take Illinois and Nevada for a gain of ten seats and control.  They also have a good shot in California and possible upsets in New York and Connecticut.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

August 31, 2010

Contact:         

            Kelly Klopp

312-952-1108

Dold: Seals Puts Politics Over Solutions on Social Security

Arlington Heights, IL- At a meeting with seniors today,10th District Congressional candidate Robert Dold called on his opponent to stop politicizing social security and commit to bi-partisan dialogue about how to save the program for current and future beneficiaries. 

“In a press release this month, Dan Seals dismissed any ideas to ‘unnecessarily overhaul the program that will be solvent for the next 27 years,’ and offered no ideas to save the program for the millions of Americans who will be due benefits once the program is bankrupt,” said

Dold campaign spokesperson Kelly Klopp.  “Again, Seals has taken the low road and followed the national Democratic party line in politicizing Social Security.”  http://www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,2012449,00.html?xid=rss-mostpopularemail

In contrast, Dold is committed to bi-partisan dialogue for Social Security to preserve current benefits for today’s seniors and ensure benefits for future generations. 

“Fixing Social Security will demand real leadership and a commitment to bi-partisan dialogue and consensus about how to make the program whole,” said Klopp.  “Robert’s priorities are to preserve current benefits for today’s seniors while working toward solvency in the long-term for this essential program.”